An industry study by Kantar Insights East Africa commissioned by British American Tobacco Kenya reveals that illicit cigarettes accounted for 45.1% of Kenya’s market in 2025, closing in on the 54.9% share held by legal products.

Nearly one out of every two cigarettes sold in Kenya completely evaded taxation, meaning a significant portion of the tobacco trade operated outside the formal tax system

The expansion of the contraband trade has compressed the regulated supply chain, resulting in the loss of 4,700 jobs and an estimated KSh 47 billion in missed tax revenue over five years.

The Sh47 billion lost could have funded approximately 48,000 affordable housing units, 19 million bags of subsidised fertiliser, or 12 million bags of maize.

The situation highlights the need for stronger enforcement, improved tracking of tobacco products, and measures to combat illicit cigarette trading while protecting government revenue and ensuring a fair business environment.