If Raila decides to support Ruto in 2027, it could mirror the 2007 scenario a “two-against-the-rest” contest. Achieving the constitutional threshold may prove difficult, making a broad coalition the only viable path to victory.

By next year, if Raila remains in the broad-based government, Uhuru is expected to shift his support to Ruto and will likely bring Gideon Moi along.

However, if Raila exits the broad-based government and breaks ties with Ruto, Uhuru may still back Ruto and bring Kalonzo on board. This would effectively secure the Eastern region.

Natembeya is likely to be approached and promised the Cabinet Secretary for Interior position. He will not be offered the Deputy President slot he is considered too politically ambitious and influential to be second-in-command. (Nani hapendi kukula kwa serikali) he will join smiling.

The 2027 elections will likely usher in many new faces in both Parliament and the Senate.

Only Rift Valley is expected to vote largely along party lines, although two notable independent candidates are expected to emerge from the region.

Everyone, including the President, will be fighting for their political survival in 2027.