The anticipated war between Iran and the US, if it happens, will be one of the most unjust wars. Iran signed a nuclear agreement with the US during Obama’s presidency. It is the US which unilaterally pulled out of the agreement.

In June last year, the US bombed Iran as negotiations on the nuclear programme were going on. Trump claimed to have obliterated the nuclear facilities. What then would be the justification for the war?

There are people who think that the US is just engaged in gunboat diplomacy. But there are many indications that it is determined to go on with the strikes.

Such a reckless and unjustified war carries a lot of risks. These include military risks, economic risks and political risks. It is easy to start a war, but it is hard to determine what happens afterwards.

Many US citizens are tired of endless wars, and a war with Iran will have political ramifications for Trump during the midterm elections. If he starts the war and things go wrong, it could spell doom for his political career.

This would be the first war with a real military in many decades. There are a lot of military risks in terms of what could go wrong. Fighting Iran isn’t the same as fighting the Taliban or other fatally weakened regimes.

Economically, 20% of global oil needs pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption on this critical route will cause oil prices to skyrocket. If this is sustained, inflationary pressure will be felt in the US, adding to Trump’s problems.

The US has no valid reasons to go to war with Iran. But it is under immense pressure from Israel to do so. This is a bizarre case of the tail wagging the dog. Trump shouldn’t take this bait.